One number resolves the bull/bear debate, and it lands September 2026.

• Growth bought vs earned. FY25 revenue jumped 34% but only 15.3% was organic — the rest was the wrap-around of Hypothesis (Oct-2024) and the September 2025 TRC consolidation. FY26 is the first year in five with no large new deal already in the comp.
• Two margin lines, opposite stories. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 28.0% → 29.6% in FY25; statutory operating margin compressed 26.3% → 19.9% over two years. The add-back stack widened from 12% to 49% of operating income.
• The gate is dated. Both advocates name H1 FY26 interim (~22 Sep 2026) as the resolving print. Organic ≥12% with margin holding rerates the stock toward the $14.30 broker target; below 10% forces a reset to statutory EPS and $6.89 (−30%).

The market priced ELIX with an Accenture-style AI de-rate. The evidence runs the other way.

• Same trade, wrong target. Accenture lost roughly 40% of its value on AI-substitution fears; ELIX fell 17.8% from its September 2025 peak as part of the same de-rate. P/Sales now sits 32% below its own six-year mean.
• No pyramid to cannibalise. 84% of consultants are equity-enrolled partners or seniors — there is no graduate-analyst base for AI to substitute. ELIX deployed 45 internal AI agents in FY25; revenue per partner climbed to $5.9M from $5.1M; AI-attributed revenue grew 260% YoY.
• Margin direction is the tell. ELIX's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 160bp in the same year Accenture's compressed. If the consulting AI trade is bifurcated — pyramid firms compress, partner firms expand — the discount is sector pricing without a business-model lens.

An asset-light cash machine — but the cash is now leaving as fast as it arrives.

$80.8M of new debt funded the $39M TRC acquisition, $27.9M of buybacks, and an $11.3M dividend in FY25. Net cash of $9.4M flipped to $32.5M net debt in a single year, and acquisitions consumed 72–110% of operating cash flow in four of the last five years. FY26 has to deliver positive FCF after acquisitions for the 'self-funded compounder' narrative to survive the next set of accounts.

Adjusted EPS now sits 58% above statutory EPS. Two years ago the gap was 9%.

• The premium is tripling. Adjusted Diluted EPS premium to statutory EPS: 9% (FY23) → 36% (FY24) → 58% (FY25). Investors anchored on the $0.79 adjusted figure face a $0.50 IFRS print.
• Three add-backs do most of the work. Acquired-intangible amortisation (~$9.4M/yr), share-based comp ($6.3M, +90% YoY, now 3.2% of revenue), and contingent-consideration fair-value movements — all recurring at a serial acquirer where the next deal is already announced (Kvadrant, Jan 2026).
• Goodwill is now 79% of assets. $232.7M of goodwill against negative $74M of tangible equity; a 17% impairment would wipe a year of statutory operating profit. Auditor Crowe has flagged it as a Key Audit Matter two years running.

The next six months pivot on one print. Everything else is positioning.

• ~14 July 2026 — H1 trading update. First quantitative tell on organic momentum. Mid-July language is the highest-information signal now that explicit guidance was withdrawn under 'Main Market norms' cover at the FY24 print.
• ~22 September 2026 — H1 FY26 interim. The decisive event. Three numbers in one print: organic growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, FCF after acquisitions. Any two confirming the bull thesis kills the bear case.
• ~24 June 2026 — AGM. First remuneration vote under the Main Market regime, with three explicit UK Corporate Governance Code opt-outs (no clawback, 3-year RSAs, no shareholding policy) on the ballot. A protest vote above 20% caps the multiple regardless of operating performance.